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Contents

I. INTRODUCTION: WHAT IS GLOBALISATION?
Different Theories on Globalisation and the Relation between the Financial System and the Real Economy (Péter Csillik)

II. SEQUENCES OF GLOBALISATION. THE PROBLEM OF MEASUREMENT

III. CHARACTERISTICS OF TIDES AND EBBS OF GLOBALISATION
1. First tide of globalisation: the great discoveries (15-16th century)
1.1. Economic thought at the time of the first wave of globalisation
1.2. Background and motivation of the First globalisation
1.3. The scope and structure of the first globalisation
1.4. Effects of the first wave of globalisation with special attention to Eastern Europe
1.5. First ebb of globalisation (17-18th century)
2. The second tide of globalisation (1820-1914)
2.1. Economic theories at the time of the second globalisation Adam Smith and the theory of the "invisible hand"
2.2. Background and motivation of the second tide of globalisation
2.3. Scope and structure of the second wave of globalization
2.4. Effects of the second tide of globalization on different countries
2.5. Ebb of the second globalization (1914-1975)
3. Years of transition and transformation between 1945-75
3.1. Globalising efforts of the developed countries after World War II: the opening towards free economy
3.2. Independence of the former colonies: self-reliance and import substitution
3.3. Outside of the globalisation: the Socialist countries
4. Third tide of globalisation (1975-2008)
4.1. The theoretical background of the third Globalization. Monetarist counter-revolution of Milton Friedman and the Chicago School
4.2. Background and motivations
4.3. Scope and structure of the third wave of globalisation
4.4. Effects of the Third globalisation on the Host Countries
4.5. The regression of the third globalisation

IV. THE EMERGING ECONOMIES. CLOSING UP STRATEGIES AT THE TURN OF THE MILLENNIUM
1. Globalisation in Central and Eastern Europe: The third wave of globalisation is CEE
1.1. Background and motivations
1.2. Scope and structure of the third wave of globalisation
1.3. Effects of the third wave of globalisation in CEE
2. Third wave of globalisation in Hungary
2.1. Background and motivations
2.2. Scope and structure of the third wave of globalisation in Hungary
2.3. Effects of the third wave of globalisation in Hungary
2.4. Third ebb of globalisation in CEE and in Hungary
3. Globalisation in Asia with special focus on China
3.1. Background and motivation
3.2. Scope and structure of the third wave of globalisation in China
3.3. Effects of the third wave of globalisation
3.4. China steers globalization - during low tide
4. Third waves of globalization in the Far East
4.1. Background and motivation
4.2. Scope and structure of the third wave of globalization
4.3. Effects of the third wave of globalisation

V. CONCLUSIONS

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Conclusions

Globalisation - as it was seen earlier - appeared in several subsequent major waves, what have been followed by longer or shorter globalisation ebbs. It happened after the Great Discoveries and after the 19th century globalisation. It is not surprising therefore, that the 20th century globalisation, that lasted for 25-30 years, turns into an ebb questioning previous globalisation dynamics, even if it does not stop the process completely.

Are we now facing new globalisation ebb? In 2008, it seemed, that countries would be able to reach their previous levels after a moderately grave recession, and would be able to continue to realise an increase in foreign trade and investment greatly exceeding GDP growth. This however has not happened and today it seems: "The globalisation index of KOF Swiss Economic Institute shows a clear break for economic globalisation in 2009: The bursting of the dot com bubble and the events of 9/11 merely slowed down the pace of globalisation; the latest economic and financial crisis has, however, created a severe setback for the globalisation process".

It is however not a novelty that politicians, sociologists and economists expect an end to globalisation - but it is yet unclear, whether it has arrived in 2013, or this one is just another temporary stopping, like the one caused by the events in the very first years of the 21st century. Another question can be, if globalisation is "good" or "bad", leading only to increasing differences in incomes of various countries and the poverty of those at the bottom. The answer probably would be neither of them.

Much depends on the countries, where the processes of globalisation are examined, which means globalisation is highly dependent on cultural aspects. In some places, it speeds up development, as it happened in South Korea or in China at turn of the 21st century. Nevertheless, even within one country, the opinions of economists vary on a wide scale. For example in Hungary before the first years of the 21st century foreign investment and globalisation were treated obviously as a phenomena facilitating social and economic development, but this approach changed fundamentally after 2007-08, and many started to argue that foreign investment in Hungary resulted a distorted economic structure and low level assembly activities. Such opinion was first formulated among others by László Árva (Árva 1999), and subsequently the same conclusion was reached by Zoltán Pogátsa (2013). To analyse global economic events is completely different today. a few years ago it was supposed that is impossible in the usual way, even when it was widely supposed, that:

globalisation is the peak of human development; the history of globalisation was a series of waves and ebbs, but in the future waves are going to take over;
in globalisation, every country have the same opportunities to utilise foreign investments, and if not, it is only caused by the incompetence of its leaders.

Today however it is not that obvious. It is visible today that the 2008 crisis has been a lasting one, and it will not be followed by a fast upturn, at least not in Europe.

Ruchir Sharma is possibly correct, when he states that the development of the countries is primarily dependent on their value system, and such characteristics are hard to change. Globalisation in Europe affected most adversely the Southern peripheral (Portugal, Greece, Spain and Italy) countries, and those states, which had an increasing budgetary deficit even before the crisis hit, like Hungary.

Contrary to this, globalisation has slowed down in Latin America earlier, and those countries started to protect themselves from the adverse effects of globalisation. Some countries in Asia - South Korea for example - may even benefit from the recent events, while this is not that obvious for many other countries.

In summary, it can be uphold that globalisation is a process gaining much speed at end of the 20th, early 21st century covering the economy, the society, the culture and the politics, and has major impacts on the interrelation of regions.

Nevertheless, it is also true that globalisation cannot be assessed only by the level of integration of a country. Globalisation or transnational indices clearly show that there are some countries, which are more integrated into the global economies, than other ones of the same size or sometimes even bigger. Korea or Japan is less integrated into globalisation than for example Germany or the United Kingdom, but it only means that the Far Eastern culture reacts differently than the European one.

Similarly, there are countries where foreign direct investment has accelerated technology transfer, while it has not happen in other countries. As the future is yet unknown, we have to close this volume by drawing attention to the many possible outcomes of the economic crisis started in 2008, and also that today it cannot be known, whether humanity moves ahead toward a growing or a reducing globalisation.

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